Manipur's Demographic Instability: Why NRC Must Come Before Census 2026

Manipur's Demographic Instability: Why NRC Must Come Before Census 2026

Author: Salam Rajesh

Manipur Map

Introduction: The Heart of the Debate

For the past few years, Manipur's population debate has moved to centre stage. It is no longer just about numbers, but about the geopolitical future of the state. With the decadal census already delayed, indigenous communities are raising a critical question: Can we count heads before we know who is living in the state?

The demand is clear - implement the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Manipur with 1951 as the base year, before the census.

The Evidence on the Ground: Unaccounted Settlements

Concern is not without basis.

1.  Forests Under Encroachment: An exercise by the State Forest Department to assess protected areas, especially reserved forests, revealed a startling fact. Since 1980, dozens of satellite hamlets have sprung up inside reserved forests without permission from the forest department or state administration. Satellite imagery has confirmed this.

2.  Highways and New Villages: Field observations show new hamlets, projected as full-fledged villages, appearing in previously uninhabited areas - along National Highways, including NH-37, and deep inside state forest lands. This writer personally observed such unidentified hamlets along NH-37 as late as the mid-2000s.

3.  The Paomata Example: Not long ago, the state witnessed an uproar over an unprecedented rise in the number of eligible electors in Paomata Circle, Senapati District, far exceeding the actual population count.

The Porous Border Factor

Manipur shares a porous international border with Myanmar. Two recent crises have complicated matters:

- The internal conflict in Myanmar has pushed refugees into Manipur and Mizoram.

- The upheaval in Bangladesh and the Rohingya exodus, while largely reported in Mizoram, has not been properly accounted for in Manipur.

- Local reports have also flagged the entry of migrant workers from mainland India without valid documents, and alleged illegal immigration from Myanmar and Bangladesh.

Since 2023, the ethnic tension in the state has further highlighted this. Local newspapers have reported the involvement of Myanmar-based armed groups like the People's Democratic Front and Kuki National Army-Burma, pointing to direct interference in Manipur's socio-political dynamics.

Why a Normal Census Will Fail

A headcount today will not give justice, for two simple reasons:

First, No Verification Mechanism: At present, there is no fool-proof system to stop infiltration through the international border, nor a filtered process to screen the existing population without error.

Second, Flawed Counting Method: Census enumerators often depend on statistics provided by local churches and village registries. In far-flung areas with difficult terrain, physical verification is almost impossible. The figures are prepared and presented by village communities without scrutiny of who is an original settler and who is a new entrant.

The Geopolitics of Population

This is not just about demographics. It is about autonomy. There is a growing apprehension that populations are being deliberately inflated in specific pockets to justify demands for autonomy, based on inflated headcounts.

Without first identifying which settlements were established before and after 1980, and without verifying if new settlements are inhabited by unaccounted populations, any census will be flawed. The same applies to reports of external forces occupying traditional forest lands of specific tribes in the uplands under duress.

Conclusion: The Need for a 1951 Cut-off

The proposed cut-off year of 1951 is crucial. It will help us understand the demographic status of Manipur seven decades ago and how much has shifted since then.

Until a thorough exercise similar to NRC is conducted to determine the exact population of indigenous people settled before 1951, and to identify all unregistered hamlets, there can never be a justified population count.

The state administration must act now to remove these errors once and for all.